{
  "age_model_assumption": "Shared core quantile 70% and independent 30%, bounded by reported 95% age interval; not a full Bacon posterior",
  "detection_efficiency_sensitivity_assumption": [
    0.35,
    0.9
  ],
  "future_forecast_skill_proven": false,
  "historical_proxy_era_results": {
    "early_0_650_CE": {
      "age_uncertain_count_5_50_95pct": [
        2,
        5,
        5
      ],
      "age_uncertain_count_mean": 4.065,
      "end_year_CE_exclusive": 650,
      "illustrative_capture_sensitivity_events_per_century_5_50_95pct": [
        0.4626,
        1.0146,
        1.9079
      ],
      "length_years": 650,
      "proxy_detected_events_per_century_without_detection_correction": 0.6253,
      "start_year_CE": 0
    },
    "high_650_1250_CE": {
      "age_uncertain_count_5_50_95pct": [
        7,
        9,
        9
      ],
      "age_uncertain_count_mean": 8.602,
      "end_year_CE_exclusive": 1250,
      "illustrative_capture_sensitivity_events_per_century_5_50_95pct": [
        1.5752,
        2.2937,
        3.8644
      ],
      "length_years": 600,
      "proxy_detected_events_per_century_without_detection_correction": 1.4336,
      "start_year_CE": 650
    },
    "later_1250_1851_CE": {
      "age_uncertain_count_5_50_95pct": [
        1,
        2,
        3
      ],
      "age_uncertain_count_mean": 1.93,
      "end_year_CE_exclusive": 1851,
      "illustrative_capture_sensitivity_events_per_century_5_50_95pct": [
        0.2103,
        0.4981,
        0.9975
      ],
      "length_years": 601,
      "proxy_detected_events_per_century_without_detection_correction": 0.3212,
      "start_year_CE": 1250
    }
  },
  "interpretation": "Local high-intensity overwash proxy sensitivity. Not every deposit necessarily maps to one identified hurricane; no annual Atlantic storm count, track, landfall, city or road forecast.",
  "preservation_detection_sensitivity_only_not_fitted_parameter": true,
  "random_age_draws": 150000,
  "raw_sand_event_layers": 18,
  "schema": "cpx.poseidon.paleo.montecarlo.v1",
  "seed": 20261113,
  "simulated_prob_650_1250_site_proxy_detection_rate_exceeds_1250_1851": 0.99995,
  "site": "Basin Bayou, Florida Panhandle",
  "smoothed_161y_count_duplicate_flag": false,
  "source": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/florida/rodysill2020basin-bayou.txt",
  "source_sha256": "28bdd34e717f9b3ef7906dbb874d8468038f7572c0e65059bd592503eb53cb16",
  "strict_era_separation": true,
  "study_doi": "https://doi.org/10.25921/n3c0-aj95"
}