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              "abs_error": 0.4134,
              "forecast_extreme_event_probability": 0.3289,
              "observed": 4,
              "observed_extreme_event_flag": 0,
              "pred_mean": 3.5866,
              "threshold_ge": 5
            },
            "named_storms": {
              "Brier_extreme_event": 0.01809,
              "CRPS_approx": 1.6167,
              "abs_error": 2.8221,
              "forecast_extreme_event_probability": 0.1345,
              "observed": 13,
              "observed_extreme_event_flag": 0,
              "pred_mean": 15.8221,
              "threshold_ge": 20
            }
          },
          "brier_ge20": 0.01809,
          "crps_approx": 1.6167,
          "event_named_ge20_observed": 0,
          "event_named_ge20_pred_probability": 0.1345,
          "forecast_mean": 15.8221,
          "target_named_storms": 13,
          "training_era": [
            1995,
            2024
          ],
          "training_through": 2024,
          "year": 2025
        }
      ],
      "three_metric_probabilistic_scorecards": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "Brier_event_threshold_ge": 10,
          "Brier_threshold": 0.194406,
          "CRPS_approx": 1.91193,
          "MAE": 2.56286,
          "N": 25,
          "source_time_revised_not_historical_issuance": true
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "Brier_event_threshold_ge": 5,
          "Brier_threshold": 0.215862,
          "CRPS_approx": 1.13148,
          "MAE": 1.47152,
          "N": 25,
          "source_time_revised_not_historical_issuance": true
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "Brier_event_threshold_ge": 20,
          "Brier_threshold": 0.147019,
          "CRPS_approx": 3.52897,
          "MAE": 4.78485,
          "N": 25,
          "source_time_revised_not_historical_issuance": true
        }
      },
      "years_n": 25
    }
  },
  "chronological_hindcast_end": 2025,
  "chronological_hindcast_start": 2001,
  "claim_superiority_over_noaa_or_csu": false,
  "distinct_actual_historical_seasons": 46,
  "experimental_conditional_scenarios_not_operational_forecast": true,
  "hindcast_training_year_max_strictly_before_target": true,
  "instrumental_noaa_source_sha256": "75202780ce56c8458f16fbef5fb8a026b99b00878dbb95c458211b3e6ef125b4",
  "limitations": [
    "Future 2027\u20132030 SST/ENSO/winds and 2026 complete season unknown; these are conditional scenario analogs, not a verified preseason forecast.",
    "Drawing 1.2 million tracks does not create 1.2 million independent historical seasons; only 46 complete years underpin the modeled instrumental analog pool.",
    "Block bootstrap cannot reconstruct unseen physical extremes beyond the observed seasonal count distribution, except explicitly labeled 20% count amplification sensitivity.",
    "All historic targets sourced from revised 2026 NOAA dataset; historical as-issued source vintages not authenticated, so backtest is RETROSPECTIVE.",
    "Monte Carlo sampling error is different from total epistemic uncertainty in a warming climate.",
    "Paleo sediment layers and documentary pre-1851 evidence are separate site-level proxies; they are not trainable numeric annual Atlantic basin storm totals.",
    "No generated scenario confers road-level flood depths, life-safety routing, precise landfall forecasts or emergency-warning authority."
  ],
  "municipal_outreach_authorized": false,
  "no_paleo_proxy_as_basin_annual_count": true,
  "no_time_travel_verified": true,
  "noaa_truth_derived_sha256": "b3f567245e8dff06903f98e1c8ca95ae7b0f15cbcdf730dde5203500bda32acd",
  "quantified_uncertainty_types": [
    "seed Monte Carlo error",
    "history window choice",
    "block dependence",
    "recent regime conditioning",
    "Atlantic SST warm/cool tertiles",
    "extreme count scaling hypothesis"
  ],
  "random_seed_root": 20261113,
  "scenarios": {
    "cool_TNA_conditional": {
      "annual_marginal_distribution": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "mean": 5.801,
          "p05": 3,
          "p50": 5,
          "p95": 11
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "mean": 2.065,
          "p05": 0,
          "p50": 2,
          "p95": 5
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "mean": 10.6,
          "p05": 4,
          "p50": 11,
          "p95": 19
        }
      },
      "block_length": 1,
      "conditioning": "cool",
      "count_sensitivity_scale": 1.0,
      "four_season_max_named": {
        "mean": 14.815,
        "p05": 11,
        "p50": 15,
        "p95": 19
      },
      "four_season_total_named": {
        "mean": 42.399,
        "p05": 30,
        "p50": 42,
        "p95": 56
      },
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_20": 0.0,
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_5major": 0.0012803,
      "name": "cool_TNA_conditional",
      "not_a_2027_forecast": true,
      "note": "Conditional analog scenario / stress resampling, not a climate-system dynamic forecast or independent issued Poseidon 2027\u20132030 outlook.",
      "prob_at_least_one_season_major_ge_5": 0.435673,
      "prob_at_least_one_season_named_ge_20": 0.0,
      "seed": 20861131,
      "seed_split_half_rate_major_ge_5": [
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        0.4356
      ],
      "seed_split_half_rate_named_ge_20": [
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        0.0
      ],
      "simulated_season_draws": 600000,
      "source_years": [
        1986,
        1994,
        1989,
        1985,
        1993,
        1987,
        1983,
        1999,
        2009,
        2000,
        2001,
        1984,
        1991,
        1990,
        1995
      ],
      "source_years_n": 15,
      "training_era": [
        1980,
        2025
      ],
      "trials": 150000
    },
    "extreme_regime_20pct_count_sensitivity": {
      "annual_marginal_distribution": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "mean": 9.23,
          "p05": 4,
          "p50": 10,
          "p95": 17
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "mean": 4.187,
          "p05": 1,
          "p50": 4,
          "p95": 8
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "mean": 18.95,
          "p05": 10,
          "p50": 18,
          "p95": 34
        }
      },
      "block_length": 3,
      "conditioning": "full",
      "count_sensitivity_scale": 1.2,
      "four_season_max_named": {
        "mean": 24.954,
        "p05": 18,
        "p50": 23,
        "p95": 36
      },
      "four_season_total_named": {
        "mean": 75.801,
        "p05": 58,
        "p50": 74,
        "p95": 99
      },
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_20": 0.0011158,
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_5major": 0.000497,
      "name": "extreme_regime_20pct_count_sensitivity",
      "not_a_2027_forecast": true,
      "note": "Conditional analog scenario / stress resampling, not a climate-system dynamic forecast or independent issued Poseidon 2027\u20132030 outlook.",
      "prob_at_least_one_season_major_ge_5": 0.96146,
      "prob_at_least_one_season_named_ge_20": 0.751487,
      "seed": 20961134,
      "seed_split_half_rate_major_ge_5": [
        0.961227,
        0.961693
      ],
      "seed_split_half_rate_named_ge_20": [
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        0.751093
      ],
      "simulated_season_draws": 600000,
      "source_years": [
        1995,
        1996,
        1997,
        1998,
        1999,
        2000,
        2001,
        2002,
        2003,
        2004,
        2005,
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009,
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017,
        2018,
        2019,
        2020,
        2021,
        2022,
        2023,
        2024,
        2025
      ],
      "source_years_n": 31,
      "training_era": [
        1995,
        2025
      ],
      "trials": 150000
    },
    "full_1980_2025_IID": {
      "annual_marginal_distribution": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "mean": 6.851,
          "p05": 3,
          "p50": 7,
          "p95": 12
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "mean": 2.913,
          "p05": 0,
          "p50": 3,
          "p95": 6
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "mean": 13.595,
          "p05": 6,
          "p50": 14,
          "p95": 21
        }
      },
      "block_length": 1,
      "conditioning": "full",
      "count_sensitivity_scale": 1.0,
      "four_season_max_named": {
        "mean": 19.176,
        "p05": 13,
        "p50": 19,
        "p95": 30
      },
      "four_season_total_named": {
        "mean": 54.381,
        "p05": 38,
        "p50": 54,
        "p95": 73
      },
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_20": 0.0011892,
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_5major": 0.0012495,
      "name": "full_1980_2025_IID",
      "not_a_2027_forecast": true,
      "note": "Conditional analog scenario / stress resampling, not a climate-system dynamic forecast or independent issued Poseidon 2027\u20132030 outlook.",
      "prob_at_least_one_season_major_ge_5": 0.6257,
      "prob_at_least_one_season_named_ge_20": 0.305433,
      "seed": 20261113,
      "seed_split_half_rate_major_ge_5": [
        0.624547,
        0.626853
      ],
      "seed_split_half_rate_named_ge_20": [
        0.303827,
        0.30704
      ],
      "simulated_season_draws": 600000,
      "source_years": [
        1980,
        1981,
        1982,
        1983,
        1984,
        1985,
        1986,
        1987,
        1988,
        1989,
        1990,
        1991,
        1992,
        1993,
        1994,
        1995,
        1996,
        1997,
        1998,
        1999,
        2000,
        2001,
        2002,
        2003,
        2004,
        2005,
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009,
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017,
        2018,
        2019,
        2020,
        2021,
        2022,
        2023,
        2024,
        2025
      ],
      "source_years_n": 46,
      "training_era": [
        1980,
        2025
      ],
      "trials": 150000
    },
    "full_1980_2025_block3": {
      "annual_marginal_distribution": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "mean": 6.807,
          "p05": 3,
          "p50": 7,
          "p95": 12
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "mean": 2.881,
          "p05": 0,
          "p50": 3,
          "p95": 6
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "mean": 13.58,
          "p05": 6,
          "p50": 14,
          "p95": 21
        }
      },
      "block_length": 3,
      "conditioning": "full",
      "count_sensitivity_scale": 1.0,
      "four_season_max_named": {
        "mean": 18.725,
        "p05": 12,
        "p50": 18,
        "p95": 30
      },
      "four_season_total_named": {
        "mean": 54.32,
        "p05": 34,
        "p50": 54,
        "p95": 78
      },
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_20": 0.0011561,
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_5major": 0.0012406,
      "name": "full_1980_2025_block3",
      "not_a_2027_forecast": true,
      "note": "Conditional analog scenario / stress resampling, not a climate-system dynamic forecast or independent issued Poseidon 2027\u20132030 outlook.",
      "prob_at_least_one_season_major_ge_5": 0.638393,
      "prob_at_least_one_season_named_ge_20": 0.277447,
      "seed": 20361116,
      "seed_split_half_rate_major_ge_5": [
        0.63916,
        0.637627
      ],
      "seed_split_half_rate_named_ge_20": [
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        0.278507
      ],
      "simulated_season_draws": 600000,
      "source_years": [
        1980,
        1981,
        1982,
        1983,
        1984,
        1985,
        1986,
        1987,
        1988,
        1989,
        1990,
        1991,
        1992,
        1993,
        1994,
        1995,
        1996,
        1997,
        1998,
        1999,
        2000,
        2001,
        2002,
        2003,
        2004,
        2005,
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009,
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017,
        2018,
        2019,
        2020,
        2021,
        2022,
        2023,
        2024,
        2025
      ],
      "source_years_n": 46,
      "training_era": [
        1980,
        2025
      ],
      "trials": 150000
    },
    "full_1980_2025_block4": {
      "annual_marginal_distribution": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "mean": 6.82,
          "p05": 3,
          "p50": 7,
          "p95": 12
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "mean": 2.895,
          "p05": 0,
          "p50": 3,
          "p95": 6
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "mean": 13.612,
          "p05": 6,
          "p50": 14,
          "p95": 21
        }
      },
      "block_length": 4,
      "conditioning": "full",
      "count_sensitivity_scale": 1.0,
      "four_season_max_named": {
        "mean": 18.343,
        "p05": 12,
        "p50": 17,
        "p95": 30
      },
      "four_season_total_named": {
        "mean": 54.447,
        "p05": 34,
        "p50": 54,
        "p95": 83
      },
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_20": 0.0010899,
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_5major": 0.0012471,
      "name": "full_1980_2025_block4",
      "not_a_2027_forecast": true,
      "note": "Conditional analog scenario / stress resampling, not a climate-system dynamic forecast or independent issued Poseidon 2027\u20132030 outlook.",
      "prob_at_least_one_season_major_ge_5": 0.629333,
      "prob_at_least_one_season_named_ge_20": 0.23202,
      "seed": 20461119,
      "seed_split_half_rate_major_ge_5": [
        0.630133,
        0.628533
      ],
      "seed_split_half_rate_named_ge_20": [
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        0.232227
      ],
      "simulated_season_draws": 600000,
      "source_years": [
        1980,
        1981,
        1982,
        1983,
        1984,
        1985,
        1986,
        1987,
        1988,
        1989,
        1990,
        1991,
        1992,
        1993,
        1994,
        1995,
        1996,
        1997,
        1998,
        1999,
        2000,
        2001,
        2002,
        2003,
        2004,
        2005,
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009,
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017,
        2018,
        2019,
        2020,
        2021,
        2022,
        2023,
        2024,
        2025
      ],
      "source_years_n": 46,
      "training_era": [
        1980,
        2025
      ],
      "trials": 150000
    },
    "recency_12yr_half_life": {
      "annual_marginal_distribution": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "mean": 7.536,
          "p05": 3,
          "p50": 7,
          "p95": 14
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "mean": 3.387,
          "p05": 1,
          "p50": 3,
          "p95": 7
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "mean": 15.716,
          "p05": 8,
          "p50": 15,
          "p95": 28
        }
      },
      "block_length": 2,
      "conditioning": "recency",
      "count_sensitivity_scale": 1.0,
      "four_season_max_named": {
        "mean": 21.044,
        "p05": 15,
        "p50": 20,
        "p95": 30
      },
      "four_season_total_named": {
        "mean": 62.863,
        "p05": 44,
        "p50": 63,
        "p95": 84
      },
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_20": 0.001291,
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_5major": 0.0011042,
      "name": "recency_12yr_half_life",
      "not_a_2027_forecast": true,
      "note": "Conditional analog scenario / stress resampling, not a climate-system dynamic forecast or independent issued Poseidon 2027\u20132030 outlook.",
      "prob_at_least_one_season_major_ge_5": 0.759087,
      "prob_at_least_one_season_named_ge_20": 0.501813,
      "seed": 20661125,
      "seed_split_half_rate_major_ge_5": [
        0.75828,
        0.759893
      ],
      "seed_split_half_rate_named_ge_20": [
        0.500787,
        0.50284
      ],
      "simulated_season_draws": 600000,
      "source_years": [
        1980,
        1981,
        1982,
        1983,
        1984,
        1985,
        1986,
        1987,
        1988,
        1989,
        1990,
        1991,
        1992,
        1993,
        1994,
        1995,
        1996,
        1997,
        1998,
        1999,
        2000,
        2001,
        2002,
        2003,
        2004,
        2005,
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009,
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017,
        2018,
        2019,
        2020,
        2021,
        2022,
        2023,
        2024,
        2025
      ],
      "source_years_n": 46,
      "training_era": [
        1980,
        2025
      ],
      "trials": 150000
    },
    "recent_1995_2025_block3": {
      "annual_marginal_distribution": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "mean": 7.695,
          "p05": 3,
          "p50": 8,
          "p95": 14
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "mean": 3.537,
          "p05": 1,
          "p50": 3,
          "p95": 7
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "mean": 15.756,
          "p05": 8,
          "p50": 15,
          "p95": 28
        }
      },
      "block_length": 3,
      "conditioning": "full",
      "count_sensitivity_scale": 1.0,
      "four_season_max_named": {
        "mean": 20.751,
        "p05": 15,
        "p50": 19,
        "p95": 30
      },
      "four_season_total_named": {
        "mean": 63.022,
        "p05": 48,
        "p50": 62,
        "p95": 83
      },
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_20": 0.0012678,
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_5major": 0.0009576,
      "name": "recent_1995_2025_block3",
      "not_a_2027_forecast": true,
      "note": "Conditional analog scenario / stress resampling, not a climate-system dynamic forecast or independent issued Poseidon 2027\u20132030 outlook.",
      "prob_at_least_one_season_major_ge_5": 0.83534,
      "prob_at_least_one_season_named_ge_20": 0.405573,
      "seed": 20561122,
      "seed_split_half_rate_major_ge_5": [
        0.836307,
        0.834373
      ],
      "seed_split_half_rate_named_ge_20": [
        0.405813,
        0.405333
      ],
      "simulated_season_draws": 600000,
      "source_years": [
        1995,
        1996,
        1997,
        1998,
        1999,
        2000,
        2001,
        2002,
        2003,
        2004,
        2005,
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009,
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017,
        2018,
        2019,
        2020,
        2021,
        2022,
        2023,
        2024,
        2025
      ],
      "source_years_n": 31,
      "training_era": [
        1995,
        2025
      ],
      "trials": 150000
    },
    "warm_TNA_conditional": {
      "annual_marginal_distribution": {
        "hurricanes": {
          "mean": 8.137,
          "p05": 2,
          "p50": 9,
          "p95": 15
        },
        "major_hurricanes": {
          "mean": 3.802,
          "p05": 0,
          "p50": 4,
          "p95": 7
        },
        "named_storms": {
          "mean": 16.07,
          "p05": 11,
          "p50": 15,
          "p95": 28
        }
      },
      "block_length": 1,
      "conditioning": "warm",
      "count_sensitivity_scale": 1.0,
      "four_season_max_named": {
        "mean": 20.631,
        "p05": 15,
        "p50": 19,
        "p95": 28
      },
      "four_season_total_named": {
        "mean": 64.278,
        "p05": 53,
        "p50": 63,
        "p95": 80
      },
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_20": 0.0012806,
      "monte_carlo_standard_error_prob_ge_5major": 0.0010281,
      "name": "warm_TNA_conditional",
      "not_a_2027_forecast": true,
      "note": "Conditional analog scenario / stress resampling, not a climate-system dynamic forecast or independent issued Poseidon 2027\u20132030 outlook.",
      "prob_at_least_one_season_major_ge_5": 0.802433,
      "prob_at_least_one_season_named_ge_20": 0.4366,
      "seed": 20761128,
      "seed_split_half_rate_major_ge_5": [
        0.80536,
        0.799507
      ],
      "seed_split_half_rate_named_ge_20": [
        0.435187,
        0.438013
      ],
      "simulated_season_draws": 600000,
      "source_years": [
        1980,
        2013,
        2005,
        2021,
        2016,
        2004,
        2007,
        1996,
        2022,
        1998,
        2002,
        2025,
        2011,
        2010,
        2024
      ],
      "source_years_n": 15,
      "training_era": [
        1980,
        2025
      ],
      "trials": 150000
    }
  },
  "schema": "cpx.poseidon.montecarlo.historical-regimes.v1",
  "simulated_four_season_trajectories": 1200000,
  "simulated_individual_season_outcomes": 4800000,
  "source_revision": "2026-09-23",
  "status": "RETROSPECTIVE_RANDOMIZED_SCENARIO_RESEARCH",
  "target_year_labels": [
    2027,
    2028,
    2029,
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