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        "full_with_satellite": {
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        "ocean_atmosphere": {
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        "ocean_combined": {
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        "ocean_nino34": {
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        "ocean_satellite": {
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        "ocean_tna": {
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        "satellite_olr": {
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      },
      "ACE_units": "APPROXIMATE NOAA-track-derived ACE, not official NHC ACE",
      "headline_only_if_all_metrics_reproducible": false
    },
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        "full_with_satellite": {
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        "ocean_tna": {
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      },
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        "satellite_olr": {
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      },
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        "ocean_combined": {
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        "ocean_satellite": {
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          "MAE": 4.8398,
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      "ACE_units": null,
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  },
  "candidate_selection_bias": "All nine models explored with historical target outcomes already known; Holm corrects nine within-cohort comparisons, not post-hoc source/model specification or hindsight",
  "claim_gate": "Do not call model better than CSU/NOAA without untouched forecast issue receipts, comparable issue dates, source vintages, predeclared targets, multiple-season evidence and independent review.",
  "csu_2024_2025_sha256": "32d952d93151ca270e951d483f3f0c9b1a039b16b77b2ec3e925a0f6781a0a6c",
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          "2004-2013": -0.6914,
          "2014-2023": 0.1227,
          "2016-2020": 0.0286
        },
        "familywise_Holm_adjusted_two_sided_signflip_p": 1.0,
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        "heuristic_80pct_band_empirical_coverage": 0.7,
        "heuristic_80pct_band_mean_width": 11.0467,
        "leave_one_year_out_mean_improvement_range": [
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        "matched_n": 20,
        "mean_paired_CSU_minus_model_abs_error": -0.28435,
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        "positive_paired_years": 9,
        "sign_of_improvement_flips_under_leave_one_out": false,
        "statistical_power_warning": "N=20 or N=10 with dependent Atlantic seasons; MC p assumes sign exchangeability, block bootstrap is sensitivity not formal pre-event proof",
        "strongest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2011,
        "three_season_circular_block_bootstrap_95CI": [
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        "ties": 0,
        "two_sided_signflip_MC_p_unadjusted": 0.6626169,
        "verified_forecast_superiority": false,
        "weakest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2006,
        "years": [
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          2014,
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          2017,
          2018,
          2019,
          2020,
          2021,
          2022,
          2023
        ]
      },
      "climatology": {
        "MAE_CSU": 4.9,
        "MAE_model": 5.14335,
        "descriptive_split_improvement": {
          "2004-2013": -0.6667,
          "2014-2023": 0.18,
          "2016-2020": 0.0266
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        "familywise_Holm_adjusted_two_sided_signflip_p": 1.0,
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        "heuristic_80pct_band_empirical_coverage": 0.7,
        "heuristic_80pct_band_mean_width": 11.0467,
        "leave_one_year_out_mean_improvement_range": [
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        "matched_n": 20,
        "mean_paired_CSU_minus_model_abs_error": -0.24335,
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        "positive_paired_years": 9,
        "sign_of_improvement_flips_under_leave_one_out": false,
        "statistical_power_warning": "N=20 or N=10 with dependent Atlantic seasons; MC p assumes sign exchangeability, block bootstrap is sensitivity not formal pre-event proof",
        "strongest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2014,
        "three_season_circular_block_bootstrap_95CI": [
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        "ties": 0,
        "two_sided_signflip_MC_p_unadjusted": 0.7071646,
        "verified_forecast_superiority": false,
        "weakest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2006,
        "years": [
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          2014,
          2015,
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          2017,
          2018,
          2019,
          2020,
          2021,
          2022,
          2023
        ]
      },
      "full_with_satellite": {
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        "MAE_model": 4.8539,
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        "familywise_Holm_adjusted_two_sided_signflip_p": 1.0,
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        "heuristic_80pct_band_empirical_coverage": 0.75,
        "heuristic_80pct_band_mean_width": 11.0467,
        "leave_one_year_out_mean_improvement_range": [
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        "matched_n": 20,
        "mean_paired_CSU_minus_model_abs_error": 0.0461,
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        "statistical_power_warning": "N=20 or N=10 with dependent Atlantic seasons; MC p assumes sign exchangeability, block bootstrap is sensitivity not formal pre-event proof",
        "strongest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2014,
        "three_season_circular_block_bootstrap_95CI": [
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        "ties": 0,
        "two_sided_signflip_MC_p_unadjusted": 0.9344533,
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        "years": [
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      },
      "ocean_atmosphere": {
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        "statistical_power_warning": "N=20 or N=10 with dependent Atlantic seasons; MC p assumes sign exchangeability, block bootstrap is sensitivity not formal pre-event proof",
        "strongest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2014,
        "three_season_circular_block_bootstrap_95CI": [
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        "ties": 0,
        "two_sided_signflip_MC_p_unadjusted": 0.9368532,
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        "weakest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2006,
        "years": [
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      "ocean_combined": {
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        "descriptive_split_improvement": {
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        },
        "familywise_Holm_adjusted_two_sided_signflip_p": 1.0,
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        "leave_one_year_out_mean_improvement_range": [
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        "matched_n": 20,
        "mean_paired_CSU_minus_model_abs_error": 0.0662,
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        "sign_of_improvement_flips_under_leave_one_out": true,
        "statistical_power_warning": "N=20 or N=10 with dependent Atlantic seasons; MC p assumes sign exchangeability, block bootstrap is sensitivity not formal pre-event proof",
        "strongest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2014,
        "three_season_circular_block_bootstrap_95CI": [
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        "ties": 0,
        "two_sided_signflip_MC_p_unadjusted": 0.9047048,
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      },
      "ocean_nino34": {
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        "familywise_Holm_adjusted_two_sided_signflip_p": 1.0,
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        "leave_one_year_out_mean_improvement_range": [
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        "matched_n": 20,
        "mean_paired_CSU_minus_model_abs_error": -0.27625,
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        "statistical_power_warning": "N=20 or N=10 with dependent Atlantic seasons; MC p assumes sign exchangeability, block bootstrap is sensitivity not formal pre-event proof",
        "strongest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2014,
        "three_season_circular_block_bootstrap_95CI": [
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        "ties": 0,
        "two_sided_signflip_MC_p_unadjusted": 0.6759162,
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        "weakest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2006,
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      },
      "ocean_satellite": {
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        "descriptive_split_improvement": {
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        "familywise_Holm_adjusted_two_sided_signflip_p": 1.0,
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        "heuristic_80pct_band_empirical_coverage": 0.75,
        "heuristic_80pct_band_mean_width": 11.0467,
        "leave_one_year_out_mean_improvement_range": [
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        "matched_n": 20,
        "mean_paired_CSU_minus_model_abs_error": 0.0602,
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        "sign_of_improvement_flips_under_leave_one_out": true,
        "statistical_power_warning": "N=20 or N=10 with dependent Atlantic seasons; MC p assumes sign exchangeability, block bootstrap is sensitivity not formal pre-event proof",
        "strongest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2014,
        "three_season_circular_block_bootstrap_95CI": [
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        "ties": 0,
        "two_sided_signflip_MC_p_unadjusted": 0.9159542,
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        "weakest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2006,
        "years": [
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      },
      "ocean_tna": {
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        "descriptive_split_improvement": {
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        "familywise_Holm_adjusted_two_sided_signflip_p": 1.0,
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        "heuristic_80pct_band_mean_width": 11.0467,
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        "matched_n": 20,
        "mean_paired_CSU_minus_model_abs_error": 0.0854,
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        "sign_of_improvement_flips_under_leave_one_out": true,
        "statistical_power_warning": "N=20 or N=10 with dependent Atlantic seasons; MC p assumes sign exchangeability, block bootstrap is sensitivity not formal pre-event proof",
        "strongest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2014,
        "three_season_circular_block_bootstrap_95CI": [
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        "ties": 0,
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        "weakest_remaining_cohort_when_removing_year": 2006,
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      },
      "satellite_olr": {
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        "MAE_model": 5.18605,
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          "2014-2023": 0.145,
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      "satellite_olr": {
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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      "climatology": {
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 4.359,
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            2005,
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            2016,
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            2019,
            2020,
            2021,
            2022,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 3.884,
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            2022,
            2023,
            2024,
            2025
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            2021,
            2022,
            2023,
            2024,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 4.4,
          "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
          "notes": "Post-hoc 2026 evaluation of a proposed sequential calibration protocol on revised NOAA data; serial dependence, prior hindsight feature vintages and small sample prevent an 80pct operational coverage guarantee.",
          "observed_coverage": 0.9
        }
      },
      "ocean_nino34": {
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          "average_interval_width": 8.1416,
          "calibration": "Rolling prior-only absolute residual order statistic, finite-sample rank ceil((n+1)*(1-alpha)); minimum 10 prior eligible annual forecasts, no present or future outcomes",
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            2021,
            2022,
            2023
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            2005,
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            2021,
            2022,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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            2025
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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      },
      "ocean_satellite": {
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          "cohort_years": [
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            2022,
            2023
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            2022,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
          "ineligible_due_to_insufficient_prior_residuals": [
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            2012,
            2013
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          "median_halfwidth": 5.057,
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        },
        "2016_2025": {
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            2023,
            2024,
            2025
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            2022,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 5.048,
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          "observed_coverage": 0.9
        }
      },
      "ocean_tna": {
        "2004_2023": {
          "average_interval_width": 7.7197,
          "calibration": "Rolling prior-only absolute residual order statistic, finite-sample rank ceil((n+1)*(1-alpha)); minimum 10 prior eligible annual forecasts, no present or future outcomes",
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            2014,
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            2019,
            2020,
            2021,
            2022,
            2023
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            2005,
            2006,
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            2021,
            2022,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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            2024,
            2025
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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      },
      "satellite_olr": {
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          "average_interval_width": 10.7076,
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            2021,
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          "ineligible_due_to_insufficient_prior_residuals": [
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            2012,
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          "median_halfwidth": 5.791,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 4.698,
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          "observed_coverage": 0.9
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      }
    },
    "major_hurricanes": {
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          "average_interval_width": 5.83575,
          "calibration": "Rolling prior-only absolute residual order statistic, finite-sample rank ceil((n+1)*(1-alpha)); minimum 10 prior eligible annual forecasts, no present or future outcomes",
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 3.233,
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          "observed_coverage": 0.8
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 2.983,
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          "observed_coverage": 0.8
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      },
      "climatology": {
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          "average_interval_width": 5.86005,
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            2022,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 3.25,
          "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
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      },
      "full_with_satellite": {
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
          "ineligible_due_to_insufficient_prior_residuals": [
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          "median_halfwidth": 3.51,
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        },
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      "ocean_atmosphere": {
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            2022,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 3.2475,
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          "observed_coverage": 0.85
        },
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 2.983,
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          "notes": "Post-hoc 2026 evaluation of a proposed sequential calibration protocol on revised NOAA data; serial dependence, prior hindsight feature vintages and small sample prevent an 80pct operational coverage guarantee.",
          "observed_coverage": 0.9
        }
      },
      "ocean_combined": {
        "2004_2023": {
          "average_interval_width": 6.01515,
          "calibration": "Rolling prior-only absolute residual order statistic, finite-sample rank ceil((n+1)*(1-alpha)); minimum 10 prior eligible annual forecasts, no present or future outcomes",
          "cohort_years": [
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            2022,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 3.2445,
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          "observed_coverage": 0.8
        },
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            2024,
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          "guaranteed_out_of_sample_coverage": false,
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          "median_halfwidth": 3.0315,
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          "notes": "Post-hoc 2026 evaluation of a proposed sequential calibration protocol on revised NOAA data; serial dependence, prior hindsight feature vintages and small sample prevent an 80pct operational coverage guarantee.",
          "observed_coverage": 0.8
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      },
      "ocean_nino34": {
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          "average_interval_width": 5.8644,
          "calibration": "Rolling prior-only absolute residual order statistic, finite-sample rank ceil((n+1)*(1-alpha)); minimum 10 prior eligible annual forecasts, no present or future outcomes",
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